2301 Recent advances in modeling and simulating infectious disease outbreaks

  • Tan Bui-thanh, The University Of Texas At Austin
  • Leticia Ramirez, Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas
  • Jose Montoya-Laos, Universidad de Sonora

With the ever-increasing human population on every part of the earth, the shrinkage in the natural habitat for plants and animals, and the shortage of natural resources such as water and food, emergence of new and re-emergence of old infectious diseases are inevitable.
Traditional epidemic models assume the law mass action where the outbreak spread homogeneously within a population. These are, in many cases, also capable to describe outbreak evolution in a region. However, advances and efficiency in transportations, the connectivity that we are constantly gaining between previously separated parts of the world, are an important factor to be considered in local infectious agent spreading. Indeed, in 2002-2004 the SARS outbreak affected 29 countries with $8,096$ confirmed cases and $744$ deaths. Currently (April 29, 2021), COVID-19 has spread over $192$ countries/regions with $149,804,444$ confirmed cases, and $3,154,603$ deaths.
On the other hand, the increasing access to close-to-real-time global and local information allows individuals to take informed actions that can protect them against infection. Both population reaction and implemented control measures modify the individual connectivity, thus helping reduce the infectious agent transmissibility as the outbreak evolves.
Travel accessibility and self-regulation connectivity are dynamics exacerbated by access to technology and will continue increasing over time.

This minisymposition presents recent advances in epidemiology, including not limited to data analysis, modeling, simulating, forecasting, and inference.

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